With a tear in our eye, we must do the cold calculas and analyze the Ohio State loss to Illinois. Using the model previously posted, Illinois should have won 36 to 18! while the actual score was 28 to 21. I think the major difference was the 3 interceptions. If I zero them out, the expected scores change to 30 to 23. Ohio St. still loses but the model performs much better. Judging from this, while turnovers obviously hurt OSU, Illinios could be expected to win the game.
What could be the cause for the model error? As mentioned in the Hidden Game of Football, interceptions thrown 5 yards down the field count the same as ones 40 yards down the field. In most games, the interception count is low or at the least the same on both sides. In this game, OSU had 3 vs 0 for Illinois. The 3 interceptions amounted to 71 yards total (the last one was a 51 yard pass). Adding that into the stats, makes the game 36 to 25 for an expected difference of 12. Still overstated, but much closer. I am guessing that Illinois trying to hold the ball at the end of the 4th quarter instead of focusing on scoring, may account for the rest of the model error. How does that happen by the way? 8 minutes?!?! oi...
What could be the cause for the model error? As mentioned in the Hidden Game of Football, interceptions thrown 5 yards down the field count the same as ones 40 yards down the field. In most games, the interception count is low or at the least the same on both sides. In this game, OSU had 3 vs 0 for Illinois. The 3 interceptions amounted to 71 yards total (the last one was a 51 yard pass). Adding that into the stats, makes the game 36 to 25 for an expected difference of 12. Still overstated, but much closer. I am guessing that Illinois trying to hold the ball at the end of the 4th quarter instead of focusing on scoring, may account for the rest of the model error. How does that happen by the way? 8 minutes?!?! oi...
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