Mich State vs BC

Did the 4 Mich State interceptions decide the game? Yes according to this analysis. Reducing the interceptions down to 2 would have been enough for Mich State to win.

so much for that

I was hoping the punt yards would explain some of the error, it did not. Now I think interception and fumble return yards would have to modeled. but for this game, there was only 1 turnover returned for 22 yards. That would net 2 net points which is in the right direction but does not explain much of the error. I suppose kick off returns would be next. I think the key was the Mizzo field goals instead of touchdowns and the poor field positon Mizzo had due to OK's offense even when they did not score.

Why did Mizzo punt twice in the 4th quarter??

Mizzo OK game drive log method

Here is the detail for the Mizzo/OK game. It did eventually get the winner right but the errors were high. I think it is due to the model not taking into account field position and punts. Punts would be the easy to model either directly or as offensive yards. While punts don't create pts, they do impact the differential which is what is modeled here.

Drive Log Method

Using the same regression data, I applied to drive log data using the yardage and turnovers. Using the WV/Pitt game, I tallied the differential by quarter compared to the actual pt difference. Interestingly, the error started out being a touchdown but ended up at 0. I will test the Mizzo/Sooner game as well. Here are the screenshots...

chaos hits the BCS

After these 2 games, things in the BCS are really messed up. Ohio State is back in it (yeah!) but who do you pick for #2? On a personal level, I like this part of college football and it is why I buy NCAA football for my Xbox 360 and not Madden Football. Count me in the non play-off crowd for sure, we have the NFL for that. Still, do we have to play on Monday night after New Years? I hated it last year and I'll hate it this year. TV money I guess... Oh yeah, here are the regressions on the 2 big games yesterday. No big surprises except the 3 fumbles by WV. That costs you 5 pts each but Pitt had 2 interceptions which cost 4 pts each so the turnovers pretty much canceled out.