some more dismal numbers

Once again, OSU falls in defeat in the BCS title game. Still, you have to be there to lose so it can be all bad. Anyway, how close was the game, did the score reflect expected performance. As you can see, LSU wins by 7 points according to the regression. Turnovers killed OSU although the fumble was on 4th down but the blocked FG and a the roughing the passer penalty can be considered a turnover in some sense. Basically, you give the ball back without the benefit of a punt. I don't know if blocked kick stats are out there but that would help. Penalties are tough to model as well, in some cases they don't matter while in other situations they are basically turnovers if the other team's drive stays alive. Dropped passes are another thing not modeled but still OSU scored more points than expected by 4 and LSU by 11. Well, onto next year as the saying goes, with no Browns, Bengals, or a BCS win by OSU, it is going to be a long DISMAL winter. :-)